Hype and Snake Oil in Longevity Medicine
- Full Scope
- Jul 2
- 11 min read
The hype around longevity is huge in 2025. Money is pouring into the space. Longevity Start-ups are launching. Big claims are everywhere. But is all the hype justified?
What can longevity medicine actually deliver now?
Let's start with some quotes: Listen carefully. These come from leaders in the Longevity space. Do these quotes/claims sound true? Do you believe they are possible?
Dave Asprey: “Im going to live to atleast 180 years”
Mark Hyman: “Im 63 years old, but my biological age is 43”
David Sinclair: “Why we age, and why we don’t have to”
Fountain Life: “Live 100 healthy years”
My Responses to these Claims
Dave Asprey (The Human Upgrade)
- I have learned some interesting things from Dave and am very thankful to have a voice like his in the health space. I am a fan of his podcast, the Human Upgrade.
- Dave sells a lot of products under the promise of drastically increasing life expectancy. But, what is the reality. Is living to 180 possible?
- Only about 200 documented people have ever lived beyond 110 years. The oldest living person ever, lived to 121, and she was an outlier by 2 years (everyone else died by 119 at the oldest). It is estimated that only 1 person in every 10 to 20 million lives beyond age 110.
- So nobody has ever made it even close to 180. That is literally a 100% life extension from age 90.
- Could there be longevity intervention(s) that can deliver a doubling of human lifespan be hiding among us? No FUCKING WAY. Something this good would be obvious.
- In fact, in 2025 there is no human clinical evidence that any of the supplements, biohacks, or other interventions Dave (or others) prescribes/sells/recommends can increase human lifespan. And this isn’t just true for Dave Asprey, its true across the board.
- So to me, when a person claims they are going to live to 180, it sounds ridiculous (probably great marketing though).
- My prediction….Gene Calment (the oldest living person ever recorded, 121) is going to eat your lunch Dave. Almost no chance you beat her, or any of the other 200 people who have made it to 110 and beyond
- Honestly if you make it to 100, I will be very impressed
Mark Hyman, MD (The Doctors Farmacy)
- I really appreciate many of the incites that Mark has brought. His focus on high quality real food, avoiding toxins, and combating the root cause of disease have been a positive influence on the rest of medicine
- But, I don’t like how aggressively Mark pushes supplements (“Try my new gut food”) and I disagree with the clinical utility of many of the lab test he recommends.
- For instance, I have had patients bring me functional lab tests from 5-10 years ago. The lab or the lab test no longer exists. Interpretting these obscure results is a challenge and its impossible to follow up. I always think to myself “this person was sold a $1000 test that is not clinically useful at all”.
- Mark bases his biological age of 43 on a DNA methylation test. This is an interesting test that may win Dave Horvath (Horvath Clock) a nobel prize (Mad respect Dave) someday. But it is not ready for prime time in clinical medicine. Results often vary drastically in the same individuals, even just a few weeks a part.
- What are the chances that this result means nothing about Marks true and unknown actual biological age……probably very high.
- In my opinion, Mark looks every bit his age. If he is biologically younger, its probably not by a full 20 years. A biological age of 43 would put Mark on course to live to 111 years of age….We shall see Mark. Fewer than 20 men in recorded history have made it to 111 years. Your chances of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are probably an order of magnitude higher
- I would love to know Mark’s VO2 max and other more functional (no pun intended) markers of longevity are. If he is in the elite category on VO2 Max, it will be easier for me to buy that he is 33% younger than his actual age.
- I think these aging clock tests are fun. But they are nowhere near accurate enough to be used in clinical practice. Additionally, I frequently see them misleading people into thinking they are healthier than they actually are (or vice versa).
- These days, there are laboratory based biological aging tests that use all kinds of biomarkers. From basic labs to DNA methylation, everything is fair game to build a clock out of. Many tests are even available that give an age for each organ system (e.g. brain age, kidney age, etc). Sadly, none are accurate enough for use in clinical medicine in 2025
- At times, the precision of laboratory based biological aging tests are laughably bad. So have fun. But don’t bet the farm on it. Or even worse, don’t bet your health on it.
David Sinclair (Harvard Professor, Aging Researcher)
- I appreciate how much publicity David has brought to longevity. His book (Lifespan, Why We Age and Why We Don’t Have To) and podcast were both very entertaining. I have certainly learned some things from David’s work. But…..
- In my eyes, David is a Master of Marketing. From a scientific standpoint though, I am less impressed with his work (though still a fan).
- For instance, David has had publications and studies that have gotten a lot of publicity. Linking red wine consumption to longevity with a plausible biological mechanism….genius. Talk about giving the people what they want to hear.
- But, many of these “pivotal” findings have not been reproducible by other scientists. For instance:
- David Sinclairs claims about resveratrol and NAD+ are good examples of this. In short, he had some promising research on these molecules as potential anti-agers, built companies around them, sold the companies, only to leave the buyers empty handed. Subsequent researchers have not been able to reproduce many of his initially very promising results……very suspect.
- So when someone like this says we don’t have to age…….I just hear marketing and science fiction. Why, because this claim is completely outside of the realm of current medical capabilities.
- We are not even able to slow aging in humans in clinical trials in 2025. Much less, stop it.
- Sure, we have drastically increased the lifespan of yeast, worms, mice, and etc. But we have never “stopped” there aging altogether.
- So us “not having to age” is just not true in 2025. Like the other Dave living to 180, this simply has never been done. Please, don’t be misled.
- David has a lot of anti-aging supplements, treatments, and other therapeutics that he often recommends. When patients come to me with this stuff, its always a bit frustrating. Why? Because the things David Sinclair recommends have never been shown to work in humans. But patients often think Dave is some kind of Longevity God. So when I tell them “that doesn’t work” or “that is not available to humans” or “that sounds really unsafe”, they can get a bit upset at times. Long story short. Get treatment advice from physicians, not celebrity researchers, celebrities, or researchers.
- Currently, we do have to age. Full stop.
Fountain Life (Longevity Clinic)
- I like some of the key philosophies Fountain Life was built on. I am also a huge fan of its founders Tony Robbins and Peter Diamandis. I find them both to be inspiring.
- But what about the claim “Live 100 Healthy Years”. Is this likely? Or just marketing without anything real to back the claim up?
- How common is it to live to 100? Has any treatment, philosophy, lifestyle, or mindset ever been shown to get people to age 100 on a regular basis……Hell no.
- Right now in the USA about 3 per 10,000 people make it to age 100
- So reaching this age with disease is rare. Reaching 100 in good health, is even more rare.
- Fountain Life is not alone in making this claim. I see marketers selling “live to 100” all the time. But the chances that this promise can be delivered to most people approaches 0.
- Additionally, I have not seen any data from Fountain Life to support this claim. Moreover no-one has ever been able to make good on this claim using any modality.
- So in 2025, “Live 100 Healthy Years” is all hype and marketing. There is no actual evidence that Fountain Life, or anyone else, can deliver on this promise.
The above people and groups are all individuals that I like and follow. Hopefully, their claims eventually become reality. But in 2025, they all have little to no basis in reality.
I get it, claims like this sell.
Honestly, I would be wise to use claims like this myself. But, I will not. I am in this for the long game. In the long game, things must actually work in order to stay viable. Without results, empty claims eventually fizzle out. Snake Oils and promises that cannot be delivered never withstand the test of time. Eventually, false claims and empty promises are exposed and the movements behind them fade away. Or, the technology catches up and their initial false claims become reality. We shall see….
For now, I will stick with a claim I know I can deliver Now. That is to:
Extend the Length and Quality of Patients Lives
How much Life Extensions is Possible in 2025?
- 8-to-20-year life extension
- 10 years to-a lifetime healthspan extension
- Most all people should be able to make it to age 90 in good health.
- To get past the early 90s some good genes and good luck are likely required.
These are my opinions. They are based on epidemiological studies, observational trials, and personal experience as a physician.
How?
Living a healthy lifestyle, moving frequently, eating real food in moderation, getting good sleep, challenging ones body and mind, building relationships, living purposefully, optimizing environment for health, avoiding injuries and accidents, preventing, and treating disease.
Speaking of Snake Oil…..I had a post intitled “Stop Buying Supplements for Longevity”. It generated a lot of interest. So lets dig a little deeper. Why did I say this?
First please note: I am talking about using supplements long term to increase lifespan. I am not talking about using supplements for nutrient deficiencies and other specific medical problems.
Evidence for Supplementation and Longevity
- Human clinical data - None
- Human mechanistic data: some exists. But do we know that altering these mechanisms that potentially affect aging will lead to longer life – not at all. There is a graveyard of medications that were based on good mechanistic data. But in clinical trials, they delivered nothing and were abandoned. The road between mechanism and clinical utility is a graveyard. Few treatments ever make it. So basing treatments on mechanistic data alone, is far from a sure bet. This is expert opinion. Ask your favorite LLM about examples of when expert opinion went poorly in medicine. You will find 100s, maybe even 1000s of examples.
- Animal data: some data exists in a limited number of animal models including mice, worms, flies. Front runner supplements include things like glycine, spermidine, and astaxanthin (among a few others). But remember, humans have very different biology than worms, flies, and even small mammals like mice. In these animals, we are talking a 1 to 20% lifespan increase (in some but not all studies), after taking the supplements LIFE LONG. We cannot base human clinical decisions on animal studies alone. Positive results in animal models is an exciting start. But, we need to run the experiments in humans.
- So many drugs have worked in animals, only to fail miserably in humans. Like mechanism above, there is a graveyard of molecules that worked in animal models, but never in humans.
- For instance, we can cure cancer of just about every mouse model of cancer. In spite of tremendous expenditure and effort, most of these cures that worked in mice have failed to work in humans.
So the evidence is fairly scant from a mechanistic and animal model point of view. Many such studies are conflicting (worked in one study but not in another).
In human clinical trials the evidence is completely absent.
But it is not the lack of evidence that really turns me off about supplements. It’s the potential for harm.
Harms of Supplements
- Distract people from doing what they really need to do. Improve their lifestyle and treat/cure their chronic disease
- Supplements can be expensive. We are talking lifelong use for these supplements. It adds up. Stacks of supplements cost even more. Like more than a weekly personal fitness trainer sometimes. Please, get the trainer instead.
- The industry is sketchy as hell. The number of fake and adulterated products are huge. Some products even contain heavy metals and poisons.
- Many formulations contain toxic levels of certain nutrients. Those taking multiple, multi-ingredient formulations are at particularly high risk for this. Remember, too much of anything can be dangerous. Too much water can literally kill you.
- People trash talk pharmaceuticals a lot, but at least pharmaceuticals have efficacy and quality control standards. Any person can start a supplement company in their garage from products they order for cheap from China……and many do.
- When people drop off food for me that they cooked, I often hesitate to eat it. And I know them…….Putting something in my body daily without 99% certainty on what it actually contains….crazy.
- Supplements have NO quality control requirements. Even if the supplement was third party verified once, we don’t know for sure if every batch is of the same quality. Often times they are not.
- Multi-ingredient formulations often only contain trace amount of the more expensive and desirable ingredients.
- White labeling is the sketchiest thing of all in my opinion. Imagine a longevity clinic wants their own supplement line. What do most do….find the cheapest supplements they can buy and then slap their own label on it. Then they crank up the price. Sadly the quality if often poor. People end up paying the most for often the lowest quality products. Even the clinic white labeling them often doesn’t really know what is in the bottle.
- Just don’t use white labeled products. If you do, atleast figure out where they were originally sourced from.
My experience with supplements
- In Idaho the woo factor is high. Pharmaceuticals are not trusted (in spite of more regulatory and quality control). Everybody is obsessed with supplements.
- As a PCP in Idaho, patients kept asking me, what supplements should I take. Or what brand do you recommend.
- I got these questions so much, I decided to source some supplements from the most reputable brands I could find and sell them in my clinic.
- What did I find…….
- 1. Taking supplements almost never improved the disease processes people were intending to treat with them. It just didn’t deliver and patients usually didn’t feel any better. Sometimes, I got a modest effect for a few weeks/months, but eventually, most people ended up dropping out. So, I did not see a lot of benefit in most people. Definitely no-where near what I hear reported in popular functional medicine podcasts. Sorry, taking a daily probiotic just didn’t seem to fix patients gut issues.
- 2. An overwhelming number of patients stopped the supplements after just a few days or weeks because they made the patient sick. Some even got very sick.
- I found even the more reputable companies would cause such sick reactions in many patients. Not a good look for a doctor.
- No matter how much I educated patients on the need for quality sourcing of supplements, many continued to just purchase the cheapest product formulations they could find online. So dangerous…….just too much lying about what is in the bottle. Particularly from vendors that have no reputation to protect.
Final Note: The only people I see pushing supplements for longevity are those selling supplements for longevity. My challenge.
- find me one doctor or scientists with no financial ties to supplements that claims taking them will improve longevity. I have found exactly 0
- find me one super centenarian (110+) that attributes their long life to daily use of supplements.
Best of luck finding these things. I doubt they exist.
I ask every patient I treat over age 90, what their secret to long life is. I have asked this to over 1000 patients now as I see this population regularly in the hospital. No-one has ever attributed their long life to a supplement or supplement regimen. What do I hear commonly:
- Keep moving and going
- Stay positive
- Trust in God
- Love the people around you
Additionally, we have seen a tremendous rise in supplement use since 2010. But, during this time, life expectancy in the US has actually decreased overall. Yes that is right……
WE ARE LIVING SHORTER TODAY THAN WE DID 15 YEARS AGO.
Want to learn more about this sobering fact? Then tune in to the next episode of Full Scope!
Protect and love your body! Be very careful about what you put in it. Particularly on a daily basis.
References
https://www.grg-supercentenarians.org/world-supercentenarian-rankings-list/?utm_
Horvath S. DNA methylation age of human tissues and cell types. Genome Biol. 2013;14(10):R115. doi: 10.1186/gb-2013-14-10-r115. Erratum in: Genome Biol. 2015 May 13;16:96. doi: 10.1186/s13059-015-0649-6. PMID: 24138928; PMCID: PMC4015143.
https://www.nia.nih.gov/research/dab/interventions-testing-program-itp
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